Rebar prices are expected to continue the trend of wide range oscillation
After experiencing the high and low in the first half of October, rebar futures prices basically dominated the range oscillation from the second half of October to the first week of November. After November, the rebar market will enter the weak reality and strong expectations of the game, the lack of resonance factors, so rebar prices may continue to continue the range oscillation.
Rebar demand top established, but need to pay attention to the policy side of the support.
Since late October, rebar fundamentals continue to weaken. However, from late October to early November this period of time, rebar price trend by the fundamentals of the impact is not large, mainly following the macro side of the news fluctuations. Especially in the first week of November, the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for the program of the debt landed one after another, so this period of time, rebar futures spot price movements are shown more “tangled”, and did not form a trend market.
After November is the construction steel consumption off-season, rebar demand will gradually decline. This year, rebar demand performance compared to the same period in previous years is weaker, inventory bottomed out in the 3rd week of October, after 4 consecutive weeks of rebound, and this year's cumulative node of time compared to previous years ahead of the 4 weeks to 5 weeks. Weekly apparent consumption also fell from 2,578,400 tons in the third week of October to 2,285,900 tons.
At the same time, after November, the focus of attention of the rebar market will shift from the peak season demand situation to the logic of winter storage, from the current understanding of the situation, this year's traders for the attitude of winter storage is very cautious, unless the price can be to a low level, otherwise there is a wide range of winter storage probability is not great.
Comprehensive analysis, November-December rebar market may continue to be in the weak fundamentals and strong policy expectations of the game, macro factors have a greater impact on the market trend, so rebar prices are expected to remain broad-based oscillation, continue to fall space is limited, but the upper space will also be limited by the weak fundamentals.
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